Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2025: The Ultimate Pogačar vs. Evenepoel Showdown?

The Spring Classics season reaches its grand crescendo this Sunday, April 27th, with Liège-Bastogne-Liège. Affectionately known as 'La Doyenne' (The Old Lady), it's not just the final Monument before the Grand Tours command our attention, but also the oldest, tracing its roots back to 1892. Steeped in history and notorious for its relentless climbs through the Belgian Ardennes, Liège is a race that demands ultimate strength and tactical nous.

While the cobbled Classics like Flanders and Roubaix often capture imaginations with their brutal pave and potential for chaos, Liège-Bastogne-Liège holds a unique prestige. The challenging parcours typically ensures that luck plays less of a role; more often than not, the strongest rider on the day emerges victorious. It's a race that has crowned legends, with the great Eddy Merckx holding the record of five victories.

A Duel Four Years in the Making?

Adding to the allure this year is the mouth-watering prospect of a genuine head-to-head battle between the winners of the last four editions: Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates–XRG) and Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step). Each rider boasts two victories here (Pogačar in 2021 and 2024, Evenepoel in 2022 and 2023).

Remarkably, despite their shared dominance, they haven't truly locked horns on these roads. They both lined up in 2023, but Pogačar's race ended prematurely with a crash, leaving Evenepoel to solo to his second consecutive win. This year, cycling fans are eagerly anticipating the clash that has been brewing.  

Recapping 2024: Pogačar's Dominance

Last year, Tadej Pogačar put on a climbing masterclass. Launching a decisive attack on the iconic Côte de la Redoute with over 30 kilometers remaining, he simply rode away from the competition. Despite initial attempts to chase, including efforts from riders like Richard Carapaz, Pogačar's gap grew steadily. He crossed the line solo, a comfortable 1 minute and 39 seconds ahead of Romain Bardet (then dsm-firmenich PostNL), with Mathieu van der Poel winning the sprint for third place another half-minute back. It was a demonstration of pure power that underlined his suitability for this demanding course.

Pogacar isn't infallible though as 2023 reminds us...

The 2025 Parcours: Where Will the Race Be Won?

The 2025 route remains largely faithful to its punishing predecessors, covering 252 kilometers starting and finishing in Liège. While slightly shorter than last year, it sacrifices none of the difficulty. The first 100 kilometers might see an early breakaway establish itself, but the real fireworks typically begin after the halfway point in Bastogne.  

The race features eleven categorized climbs, but the true selection begins around 150 kilometers in, near Vielsalm. From the Côte de Mont-le-Soie onwards, the climbs come thick and fast: the Côte de Wanne, the Côte de Stockeu (famous for its Eddy Merckx statue), the Côte de la Haute-Levée, the Col du Rosier, and the Côte de Desnié.  

However, all eyes will be on the final 40 kilometers. The legendary Côte de la Redoute (1.6 km at around 9.5%), potentially made even harder this year with a slight alteration near the summit leading onto the Côte de Cornémone, often serves as a launchpad. Around 30km from the finish, it’s a prime spot for the favourites to test their legs, as Pogačar did so effectively in 2024.

Following La Redoute is the Côte des Forges (1.3 km @ 7.2%), before the final major hurdle: the Côte de la Roche-aux-Faucons (roughly 1.3 km at a brutal 11% average gradient, with ramps exceeding 15%). Cresting this 'Falcon's Rock' with just over 13 kilometers to go, often proves decisive. A nasty, uncategorized kicker follows the short descent, providing one last test before the relatively flat run-in to the finish line on the Quai des Ardennes.

The Contenders: Beyond the Big Two

While the Pogačar-Evenepoel narrative dominates, reducing Liège to a two-horse race would be foolish.

• Tadej Pogačar: The Slovenian phenomenon has been, well, phenomenal again this season. Wins at Strade Bianche and the Tour of Flanders, plus podiums at Milan-Sanremo and Paris-Roubaix, highlight his incredible form. His dominant win at La Flèche Wallonne midweek confirmed his climbing legs are sharp. However, Liège comes at the end of a long and demanding spring campaign. His surprise defeat in the Amstel Gold Race sprint finish, after being part of the winning move, showed he can be beaten. Could fatigue finally play a role?  
• Remco Evenepoel: The Belgian champion has made a stellar return from injury. He animated Brabantse Pijl, ultimately winning the sprint against Wout van Aert, and secured a strong third place at Amstel Gold Race after helping close down attacks. He appears to be building form with each race and will have the advantage of being fresher than Pogačar. Liège suits his capabilities perfectly, and he'll have strong support from Ilan Van Wilder and Maximilian Schachmann.  
• Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek): The Dane pulled off a stunning victory at the Amstel Gold Race, outsprinting both Pogačar and Evenepoel. That win rocketed him into serious contender status for Liège. Despite a crash at La Flèche Wallonne, reports suggest he avoided serious injury and is expected to start. With proven ability to match the best on tough climbs and a sharp finish, he cannot be underestimated, especially with the backing of a strong Lidl-Trek team possibly including Giulio Ciccone and Thibau Nys.  
• Tom Pidcock (Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team): Now leading the Q36.5 team, Pidcock seems revitalized. Early season wins and the ability to follow Pogačar at Strade Bianche demonstrate his class. He finished second to Evenepoel here in 2023 (though over a minute behind). On his day, the explosive British rider has the climbing prowess and race craft to challenge for the podium, perhaps even the win if the top two falter.
• Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost): Known for his aggressive racing style, Healy has shown strong form, including a brilliant solo stage win in the Tour of the Basque Country and top-10s at Strade Bianche and Amstel. His attacking instincts could see him try to anticipate the main favourites.
• Other Potential Players: Keep an eye on riders like Maxim Van Gils (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Marc Hirschi (Tudor Pro Cycling), the experienced Romain Bardet (Team Picnic PostNL - second last year), Enric Mas (Movistar), the exciting young Frenchman Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ), and the promising Belgian Lennert Van Eetvelt (Lotto Dstny). Teams like Visma | Lease a Bike, lacking a designated leader, might employ aggressive tactics with riders such as Tiesj Benoot or Ben Tulett.  

How Will It Unfold?

Will Pogačar attempt another long-range solo move on La Redoute? Or will he wait for the steeper slopes of the Roche-aux-Faucons, similar to his winning tactic at Flèche Wallonne? If he does get a gap on the final climb, can a determined chase group, potentially containing Evenepoel, Skjelmose, and Pidcock, collaborate effectively over the remaining 13 kilometers to bring him back?

Evenepoel might look to use his strength on the slightly longer climbs or exploit any sign of fatigue from Pogačar. Skjelmose and Pidcock will likely aim to hang tough on the climbs and use their finishing speed if they arrive with a small group.

One thing is certain: with pleasant weather forecast (sunny, around 19°C), conditions should be perfect for a spectacular battle. La Doyenne is poised to deliver another unforgettable chapter in cycling history.